图书简介
Dynamic Decisions highlights how some managers and policymakers sleepwalk into decision paralysis. Strategically, they partly recognise their world is changing radically as energy systems transition. In deciding what to invest in, they default to rewarding the predictable and proven, often misdiagnosing the ignored risks of innately ambiguous markets. To remedy this, the author frames ambiguity as a source of opportunity. As extant advantages obsolesce, new entrants could disrupt to gain dominance. Some managers could repurpose, reframe, and reconfigure their resources and processes to create tomorrow’s profitable niches today. To profit from these emerging business landscapes, managers can PIVOT and BOUnCE to win by transitioning into a dynamic mindset. Endowed with a creative mind to innovate, humans could reshape their firms and their societies. Armed with these capabilities, albeit partial, managers could choose to adapt responsive strategic actions that are tangible, actionable, and achievable, with policy sustaining societal benefits by expanding people’s access to opportunities.Key FeaturesPresents a unified decision framework that incorporates human behaviour from a perspective of behavioural economics and finance. Decision making is seen as occurring under ambiguous and uncertain conditions, where managerial flexibility and how rivalries among competing firms are explicitly evaluated as to their impact on investment valuationIn using PIVOT, managers connect their investment decisions to the firm’s purpose and insights from a portfolio perspective. In recognising ambiguities, managers learn to veer and overcome obstacles before taking irreversible commitments. This guides managerial decisions by providing a framework to move adaptively under uncertaintiesManagers are informed by beliefs that influence their outlook and understanding of the context of their decisions. In making these factors explicit, the strategic assumptions are better understood collectively by managers. As a result, insights as to how different parties are incentivised, and how value is created and captured are used to inform how managers could affect their adaptive movesApplied to transitioning energy systems, uncertainties become exploitable opportunities for managers to create arenas for tomorrow’s profitable niches today. In tangible and actionable ways, managers may seek to repurpose their resources, to reposition their firm as energy markets evolve. Through experimentation and learning, managers could reframe their purpose, and execute their strategy by reconfiguring their firm’s approachIn connecting theory to practice, actual business cases are presented, examined, and evaluated, where counter-intuitive insights are used to inform strategic dialogue and strategy formulation. In focusing on the manager as a human person, virtues such as humility, integrity, and generosity become the lynchpin for successful PIVOT and BOUnCE
Prologue by Franz Heukamp: Preface; Early Praises; Understanding Energy Pivots: From Impasse to PIVOT; Policy and Managerial Actions; Adaptive Moves: Articulate a Purpose; Bounded Possibilities; Calibrate; De-risk; BOUNCE to Win: Cost of Energy; Levers of Value; Price-taker; Oligopolistic Rivalries; Winning Actions: PIVOT and BOUnCE to Profit
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