图书简介

1. Introduction.- Part I: Global real interest rates, economic and trade growth uncertainty shock effects on the South African economy.- 2. Is BRICS GDP growth a source of shocks or an amplifier of global growth responses? What are the policy implications for South Africa?.- 3. Global economic and policy uncertainty shock effects on the South African economy: Do these reinforce each other?.- 4. Heightened foreign policy uncertainty shocks effects: Transmission via capital flows, credit conditions and business confidence.- 5. In which direction is there a momentum effect in the changes in the spread between the repo rate and federal funds rate?.- 6. How do global real policy rates impact the South African GDP growth and labor market conditions?.- Part II: The Taylor curve, external shocks, labour market conditions and inflation expectations.- 7. The output-gap, nominal wage and consumer price inflation volatility trade-off.- 8. Output and inflation volatility trade-off: Do external shocks and inflation expectations shift the Taylor curve.-9. Do adverse global trade developments shocks impact the trade-off between the inflation and output volatilities.- 10. Does the labour market conditions shock impact the trade-off between the inflation and output volatilities?.- 11. Output-inflation trade off and the issue of policy ineffectiveness.- 12. Do inflation regimes affect the transmission of nominal demand shocks to the price level?.- 13. What is the nature of the output-employment-unemployment nexus in South Africa? Evidence from various approaches to Okun?s Law.- 14. Does the consideration of nominal wage growth imply a high level of inflation inertia or persistence compared to consumer price inflation?.- 15. Wage and consumer price inflation during exchange rate appreciation and depreciation episodes.- 16. Is there a case for nominal GDP growth targeting in South Africa?.- Part III: Policy uncertainty, mining sector charter, exchange rate volatility, commodity price booms and busts, binding minimum wage increases and the mining sector.- 17. How has the intensity of the ability of commodity specific output growth to create jobs evolved? Implications for the mining sector as a ?sunrise industry?.- 18. Is export-led growth a necessary but insufficient condition for job creation in the mining sector? Does this mean that there is a strong case for beneficiation?.- 19 The impact of mining commodity price booms and sharp exchange rate depreciation episodes on mining output and employment growth.- 20. The role of the exchange rate on investment growth in the mining sector: Evidence from the balance sheet hypothesis.- 21. The role of the exchange rate volatilities on the mining sector.- 22. The role of policy uncertainty low confidence and the mining charter in the transmission of positive shocks to commodity prices in the mining sector.- 23. What are the mechanisms and channels through which the mining sector adjusted to an increase in the binding minimum wage in 2014?.- Part IV: Accelerated land reform, the agricultural sector and implications for macro-economic policies.- 24. The impact of structural change on the South African economy: Evidence from the structural change indices and McMillan and Rodrick (2011) labour productivity decomposition approach.- 25. Land reform, redistribution and agricultural investment growth: What are the implications for the NDP output and employment targets?.- 26. What is the role of food commodity price booms and busts in the agricultural sector? Implications for monetary policy.- 27. What is the role of trade liberalisation and food commodity price booms in the agricultural sector? Implications for the export-led growth strategy.- 28. Is the agricultural sector sensitive to the exchange rate depreciation and volatility: Evidence from the balance sheet channel.- 29. How are the interest rates and credit supply shocks transmitted to the agricultural sector?.- 30. What is the impact of a binding minimum wage on the agricultural sector?.- 31. Can land reform help reduce poverty and inequality?.- Part V: The transmission of sovereign debt downgrades into the credit markets and the real economy.- 32. What role does business confidence play in transmitting sovereign credit ratings upgrade and downgrades shocks to the real economy?.- 33. Are sovereign credit ratings shock transmitted via economic growth to impact credit growth dynamics?.- 34. Does the cost of government borrowing transmit the sovereign credit downgrade shocks to credit growth?.- Part VI: Capital flow surges, sudden stops and elevated portfolio volatility shocks: what is the nature of their interaction with GDP growth and credit and economic costs?.- 35. What are the economic costs of capital flow waves in South Africa?.- 36. Capital flow surges, sudden stops and elevated portfolio volatility shocks: What is the nature of their interaction with GDP growth and credit?.- 37. Do bank and non-bank capital flows induce sectorial reallocation of credit away from the household sector?.- 38. Do banking and non-banking capital flows induce sectorial reallocation of credit away from companies?.- 39. Do equity and debt inflows matter in the attainment of the price stability mandate?.- 40. Do local investors play a stabilizing role relative to foreign investors after economic shocks.- 41. Do investors? net purchases and capital retrenchment activities impact the monetary policy response to positive inflation shocks?.

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